It’s carnival time again

MANILA, Philippines—Candidates waved from motorcades, pressed hands with housewives and teenagers, and pleaded at Masses for God’s blessings as the most extravagant political carnival in Philippine history rolled off Tuesday.

The country’s richest politician and the son of its democracy icon are locked in a tight battle to win the hearts of some 50 million voters, who will go to the polls on May 10 in the Philippines’ first automated national elections.

At stake in the elections are the posts of president, vice president, 12 Senate seats, more than 200 seats in the House of Representatives and over 17,600 local government positions.

The world’s best boxer, Manny Pacquiao, and a dictator’s flamboyant widow, former first lady Imelda Marcos, are among the dizzying array of characters hoping to grab a share of power in one of Asia’s most unruly democracies.

Some analysts warned that candidates’ promises of change were likely to prove hollow.

“I don’t think there will be any change in the idiosyncracies that define the Philippines,” said Robert Broadfoot, managing director of the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy group.

Poverty, corruption and unemployment are the top issues in the campaign.

The two front-runners in opinion surveys, Senators Manuel Villar and Benigno Aquino III, are promising a clean government and fresh start for the Philippines after nine years of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s tumultuous rule dotted with coup plots and corruption allegations.

With dozens of people already dead in the run-up to the polls—including 57 civilians (at least 30 of them media workers) gunned down in a massacre in Maguindanao province last November—political violence has again emerged as a main concern. About 130 people were killed during the last elections in 2007.

Aquino, who rode into contention on a wave of sympathy following the death of his mother, democracy heroine Corazon Aquino, leads Villar by a hair in the latest surveys.

Aquino’s earlier huge lead in surveys vanished almost as quickly as it was gained as Villar, a mega-rich property developer, caught up him with a 35-percent support in the latest Pulse Asia survey following an advertising spending spree.

Spice from Estrada

Adding spice to the race is former President Joseph Estrada’s attempt at political resurrection, after he was deposed halfway through his first term in 2001 and later convicted of corruption. Ms Arroyo pardoned him weeks later.

Estrada is running third in the surveys and, although an outside chance, some analysts said the former movie star could yet achieve his wish of redemption.

“It’s going to be difficult for him, but he has 100-percent name recognition across the country—it depends on how diligently he runs his campaign,” said Ronald Holmes, a political lecturer at De La Salle University in Manila.

The ruling coalition’s choice to succeed Ms Arroyo, former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr., is running a distant fourth with just a 5-percent support in the latest survey.

However Holmes, also president of polling firm Pulse Asia, said picking a winner three months from the election was impossible, and even Teodoro had a chance if the coalition’s formidable machinery could kick into action.

Come-backing Imelda

For an international audience, interest will focus on Pacquiao, the seven-time world champion boxer who is running for a congressional seat in Sarangani province in Mindanao.

Pacquiao is counting on his hero status to get him elected. He failed in a similar bid in the 2007 congressional elections and Holmes said could again be struck a knockout political blow.

“It’s going to be difficult for him. He is up against someone who has been in local politics for a long time,” Holmes said.

Also seeking a seat in the House of Representatives is Imelda Marcos, the 80-year-old wife of Ferdinand Marcos, who is running in the second congressional district of Ilocos Norte for the seat being vacated by her son, Ferdinand Jr.

Lenten tradition

Police have set up checkpoints in a nationwide crackdown on unlicensed guns. They said operations were continuing to disarm nearly 100 private armies on the payroll of political warlords.

On Tuesday, candidates shook hands with vendors, housewives, laborers and teenagers as they hopped from town to town just a few hours away from Manila, visiting markets, parks and churches on the first of 90 days of campaigning.

Some candidates heard Mass at churches, with one transforming his rally into a prayer gathering, reenacting the Lenten tradition of Jesus Christ washing the feet of his disciples to illustrate his desire to be a public servant.

Personalities vs platforms

Financial markets are hoping for a smooth transition, outweighing fears of possible technical and administrative problems from the country’s first automated polls.

Analysts are looking for more details on the candidates’ platforms, particularly economic policies, which are absent from a barrage of political ads on TV and radio since the start of the year.

Historically, popular personalities from political clans, the media, sports and show business dominate the elections, but some analysts are seeing some positive changes.

“In this election, I see a 50-50 ratio on personalities and platforms or issues as the political race heats up among the leading presidential candidates,” said Ramon Casiple, executive director of Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms.
Reports from AFP, AP and Reuters